Via Slashdot[1] I found this interesting article by Client DeBoer on the competing Blu-Ray and HD-DVD formats, both touted by their respective backers as the replacement for the DVD format. DeBoer posits that neither of the two will catch on with the general public, and lists the top ten reasons for them failing to do so. The point that rings most true to me is this one:3. HD DVD and Blu-ray are NOT Quantum Leaps in TechnologyExactly right. The introduction of the DVD was nothing short of a revolution. Blu-Ray? HD-DVD? Okay, so it's better than DVD, but is it better enough?
Consumers came over in droves when CDs were released back in 1982. The new format offered not only a new digital media, but also a way to instantly access tracks across an entire album. Convenience, not technology, drove this format to almost instant consumer adoption. Fast forward a bit to 1997 when the first DVD player was released. Again, convenience, not technology, drove people to the market en masse. Unlike VHS tapes, the new DVD format was smaller, easily navigated and would not wear down over time like existing tape-based formats.
DeBoer also mentions the spectacular failure of SACD and DVD-Audio, two competing format intended to replace the CD. The first thing I thought the first time I heard of either a couple of years ago was "eh." Audio CDs are good enough. Perhaps not for those of you with golden ears, but for us mere mortals they most certainly are.
Besides, I wouldn't spend money on a player of one format or the other until I'm absolutely sure the one I'm picking is the format that will ultimately prevail. Let's just say I'm in possession of waaay too many Betamax tapes for me to get into the early-adoption game again. Another important issue is backwards compability; I'm not going to replace my DVD collection[2], so any player I buy had better support DVDs as well.
Though, unlike the VHS and Betamax, Blu-Ray and HD-DVD have the exact same dimensions, and I can't imagine it being to difficult to create a player that could handle both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD discs. The end result might be much like the format war between the DVD-R and DVD+R burnable DVD formats: ultimately all burners just supported both, the format war essentially ending in a tie.
For the time being I'm sticking with my DVD collection, though. Until HVD comes along, that is.
[1] Oh, don't start.
[2] Which numbers well over 200 at this point. My salary is way too high.
